Bloomfield Hills, MI (PressExposure) September 09, 2009 -- Continuing a series of releases that focus on a very real and abiding threat to the US industrial base and aerospace knowledge sector as debate continues on the future of Boeing's C-17 Globemaster III, Global HeavyLift Holdings, LLC, A Florida-based, Defense Logistics Agency (/DLA) listed (www. ccr.gov) entity with principal offices in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, has made accessible again an extremely relevant-to-discussion U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC) study.
Originally completed in November of 2005 as a specific counter to the conclusions reached within the largely discredited Mobility Capabilities Study (MCS) and the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) echoing its "180 C-17s is enough", and "minimal negative economic impact" contentions, the DoC study paints a grim picture backed by voluminous data that is "evergreen".
"For all of the supportive --albeit very commendable-- talk by lawmakers and involved industrial entities, there is, with few exceptions, an observable recalcitrance in voicing the extremely serious state of affairs represented by C-17 line termination", says Myron D. Stokes, Managing Member.
"For example, despite that fact of the DoC study's existence and its data-based articulation of an immediate USD8.4 billion in negative industrio-economic base effect resulting from idling 30,000 highly skilled direct employees of (as of 2006) 702 suppliers in 42 states, there is focus on the more recent GAO analysis observing a USD1 billion cost if the line were closed and restarted. It is not only important to conjoin the expansive data contained within these vitally important studies, but to use them in driving home the point of a country's economic stability DNA as existing within its manufacturing base," he said.
The Keynesian Economic Model Multiplier Principle: John Maynard Keynes Knew What He Knew
In the automotive/aerospace industries research and analysis site eMOTION! REPORTS.com (www.emotionreports.com) critique "Boeing Going?" (2001) that discussed the company's Chairman pondering an HQ move from ancestral home Seattle, Wayne State University Professor and Former Ford Motor Company statistician Victor Lowe painted a disturbing picture in reference to what is now understood as the capturing of Chrysler Corporation by Daimler-Benz, AG.
âThe loss of so many jobs at Chrysler and other large companies," he said, "may be setting up the U.S. economy for potential catastrophe. According to the Keynesian Economic Model multiplier principle, you have to multiply each job lost by a fairly large number to calculate the total loss to the economy.â
Study: 16,000,000 Positions Affected
The analysis also referenced a 2001 University of Michigan study demonstrating that then recent Chrysler job loss would impact over 16 million positions and accelerate a recession. "When one considers all of the aforementioned factors," it read, "the threat of AIRBUS, the predatory economic activity of the E.U., an irresponsible Wall Street, a rapidly emerging recession with crash potential, the destruction of Chrysler, an appalling apathy on the part of Capitol Hill and a globally clueless American society as to the fragility of this countryâs industrial base, should we really be surprised at [former Boeing Chairman Dr. Philip] Conditâs actions?"
In line with Professor Lowe's comments, Stokes observes further that "Failure to apply the Keynesian model appropriately will and has resulted in inaccurate and unsustainable economic recovery estimates/projections, for the simple reason that the loss of manufacturing SYSTEMS like C-17 is so massive in its overall economic impact. This is owing to multiple and inextricably linked layers of production process interactions between the OEMS and their supplier base", says Stokes. "And then you add the butcher, the baker, the candlestick maker."
Unabated Job Loss
A former associate of manufacturing quality visionary Dr. W. Edwards Deming, Prof. Lowe further noted, and in what can now be viewed as quite prescient, that âThe accumulated effect of all the lost jobs will ripple through the economy for a long time, and companies, such as GM and possibly even Ford, may become so weakened economically that they might be vulnerable to take over, even from a non-U.S. owned firm. People should be concerned, especially after seeing what happened to Chrysler so soon after it was purchased.â
According to Stokes, a former Newsweek, Newsweek Japan and Newsweek International business correspondent, "Prof. Lowe's Chrysler conclusions are perfectly analogous to the Boeing C-17 circumstance, in terms of job count and skillsets with the exact same impact: Over 16,000,000 positions affected with the uncomfortable, if not disastrous, effect of reverse job growth. This in term, mitigates, if not neutralizes, any positive movement associated with Federal stimulus initiatives that seem disconnected from erosion of base concerns."
The Other Elephant in The Room: China Stands Ready to Replace The US and EU in Automotive and Aerospace Dominance
Stokes further states that colleagues in government and academia are convinced termination of the C-17 production line and other pivotal elements of the country's industrial foundation, represents the final phase of a well orchestrated strategy playing out over at least two decades initiated by multiple governments inclusive of China and Japan, to end US manufacturing dominance in the automotive and aerospace sectors. Strategies, it can be said, facilitated by only too willing participants in the US industrial, financial and policy-making sectors.
It is through such exertion of policy influence and market manipulations, Stokes observes, that China now essentially controls General Motors and thanks to its industrial espionage activities as partly noted in the 31 May, 2009 release, has obtained entire vehicle platforms, Aegis BMD, F-22, F-35 and C-17 techologies. Thus, it stands poised to supplant the US and the EU, as a global center of automotive and aerospace manufacturing.
More ominously, say sources, the Canadian government is expressing cautious concern regarding China's burgeoning control and attempts to control, essential resources inclusive of rare earth metal production. According to The Australian recently, "global supply of the rare-earth metals, which are vital to the mechanisms of hybrid cars, wind turbines, iPods, lasers, super-efficient light bulbs and radar systems, is 95% controlled by China."
The Reality of Economic War
"In some circles, and most certainly in the view of Sun Tzu", says Stokes, "the above is known as economic war: The assignment by a given government of resources, along with the development of trade policies designed to gain an advantage for its own industry over, or even remove from existence, business entities in the target country. Conversely, it is not sufficient to simply assert a perceived threat to the US industrial base and the defense industrial base, which are one and the same, rather, the proving data must be collected, analyzed, tracked and submitted through appropriate channels within the policy making arena.
"This is precisely what studies such as that developed by the Department of Commerce regarding the quite negative economic impact of a discontinued C-17, the GAO and the on-going work of the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC.gov) are designed to do. And this is why we are making the DoC study, originally obtained by a respected defense industry website, available for a broader base of scrutiny, despite efforts to render it inaccessible," Stokes said. # # #
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